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It places particular emphasis on measures that refer to the total economy rather than to particular sectors.These include a measure of monthly GDP that has been developed by the private forecasting firm Macroeconomic Advisers, measures of monthly GDP and GDI that have been developed by two members of the committee in independent research (James Stock and Mark Watson, (available here), real personal income excluding transfers, the payroll and household measures of total employment, and aggregate hours of work in the total economy.
The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.
In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.
The committee noted the contrast between the June trough date for the majority of the monthly indicators and the October trough date for real personal income less transfers.
Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.
The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.